Shotgun Start: Hall calls, Tiger's Bear hunting, rookie Rickie

Steve Elling | January 12, 2010

Two prominent players who turned 40 last year, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, will be listed for the first time on the 2010 World Golf Hall of Fame ballots. Do they get in?

ELLING: Theodore Ernest Els is an absolute no-brainer, a Grand Slam-dunk pick as a first-ballot guy, so he had better be making plans for the November induction ceremony. With three majors among his 60 sanctioned international wins, he has been like Gary Player to a new generation of South African juniors. The Goose, though, is a far tougher call. Whereas Els won early and often, Goosen's productivity curve is far steeper. Leading up to the first of his two U.S. Open titles nine years ago, he had amassed just four wins outside South Africa. His victory last year in Tampa was his first on the PGA Tour in four years. He might get in eventually, but if he had closed the deal at Pinehurst in 2005 and won his third U.S. Open title, he would have presented a résumé akin to Larry Nelson and Payne Stewart. Neither had a staggering victory total, but three major titles would have made him a HOF lock. For Goosen, who will be listed on the International ballot along with players like Colin Montgomerie and Jumbo Ozaki, it could be a long time before he gets the hall call. By the way, cinch pick Phil Mickelson will be included on the 2011 ballot.

MICHAUX: Can't really argue with you here. Els will get my vote and Goosen won't (mostly because Goose is on the International ballot, which I don't get a say in). If he were on the PGA Tour ballot, Goosen would fall into the Mark O'Meara part of purgatory for the relatively worthy, but not yet. Goosen didn't exactly light up the world with his personality and he wasn't a leader in the Presidents Cup the way Jose Maria Olazabal and Colin Montgomerie were in the Ryder Cup. But he has two majors and two Orders of Merit to his substantial credit. Instead of slamming the door on his Hall qualifications with that third U.S. Open at Pinehurst, he imploded so horribly that it left a stain he hasn't fully erased even in his own mind. That's part of the problem with voting on these guys while they're only 40 years old and still in what can now be considered the lingering prime of a pro's career. Why the World Golf Hall of Fame couldn't wait until players turned 50 to put them on the ballot is perplexing. Football, baseball and basketball don't enshrine guys while they're still playing. Golf could show a little more patience. Halls of Fame are about reflection, and it's hard to reflect on a guy's impact and legacy while he's still trying to win the Bob Hope. That's why I tend to cast votes for the Doug Fords (still out) and Denny Shutes (barely in) who get passed over for fresher meat. The Goosens, O'Mearas and Loves can wait their turn.

In a statement that caused some rumblings, Jack Nicklaus said that if Tiger Woods sits out 2010, it will be harder for him to match or surpass the Golden Bear's record for professional majors, which stands at 18. Do you buy Nicklaus' reasoning?

ELLING: We both listened to Nicklaus last week as he addressed Woods and the Grand Slam record book, and he meant nothing remotely untoward by the comments. In fact, from a purely quantitative standpoint, the Bear is dead right. Of course it will be harder for Woods to win four more majors to match Jack if he skips playing this season -- simply because he'll have four fewer plate appearances in his prime years (Woods turned 34 two weeks ago). So there's no disputing the mathematical reality of Nicklaus' comments, particularly since three of the majors are at venues where Woods has won multiple events in the past: Augusta, Pebble Beach and St. Andrews. So when Nicklaus said it's hard to envision Woods missing a chance to play at those sites, he was quite likely spot-on there, too. The better question might be whether Woods will break Nicklaus' record, period, given that so much has changed in his life of late. It seemed like a certainty before. Now the Bear's major total seems like a much steeper climb.

MICHAUX: I have long been in the camp that Tiger passing Jack was just an inevitability. He has simply been too great to fail. And even in light of everything that has happened, I believe that if Tiger decides he still wants to play golf and still has the competitive drive that brought him this far, he will eventually do it. But there is no doubt that this fiasco makes it harder and skipping this season would make it even more so. Tiger has won half of his 14 majors at Augusta (4), Pebble (1) and St. Andrews (2) and won by record margins at each of those iconic places. As Jack said, "he owns them." Nicklaus knows a thing or two about that since half of his 18 major titles came at those very same places. The U.S. Open won't be back to Pebble until Tiger is comfortably in his 40s, and it only goes to the Old Course at five-year intervals. Skipping those sites while he's in his peak years is like throwing away free coupons. You never know what the future holds. Now is always a better time to strike. In many ways, the disaster of his personal life has added intrigue and spice to the quest. And it will have fans rooting for and against him with more zest than before.

Forget Rory McIlroy. Can Rickie Fowler, another PGA Tour rookie this year, possibly live up to the growing hype?

ELLING: Perhaps not, but his instant celebrity is somewhat of his own making. Fowler's management group has been pushing the kid aggressively, and given the way he played in the Fall Series last year, when he nearly won a tournament, striking while the opportunity was there hardly seems a bad call. But let's not forget that while he nearly won on the Nationwide and PGA Tour last year, he also missed a Nationwide cut. For once, let's give the guy some breathing room and not hyperventilate just because Woods isn't around to write about. Fowler won a national player of the year award as a college freshman, a first, and seemingly has the chops to play with the big boys, but he hasn't done it yet. Kicking butt in the Fall Series is one thing, but let's see how he does when the names on the pairing sheet are Woods, Mickelson, Stricker or even ... McIlroy, a more proven commodity. Fowler has acres of game. Let's give him some space to find it. (Note to his management team: Please ask Rickie the Rookie to stop tucking his ears under his painter's hat. Call me old-school, but the combination is just, I dunno, annoying.)

MICHAUX: Roughly every other year one of these "can't-miss kids" treads into the spotlight and drives everyone's imaginations wild. Fowler is just the latest on a long list and he certainly is off to a promising career start. But I have a lot of personal experience covering another collegiate phenom who sprung out of the gates with a lot of fanfare and initial success. I witnessed Charles Howell III, fresh off a record-setting 2000 NCAA triumph, finish runner-up in his Nationwide Tour debut as an amateur in Greensboro. He turned pro the next week and a month later finished third at the John Deere. As a rookie he lost in a playoff in Milwaukee and year later broke his maiden in Williamsburg. Howell was hyped as the next great thing and was a public relations dynamo and a sponsor's dream. A decade later he has earned more than $18 million on the course, many millions more off it and has two tour titles to his credit, but Howell still hasn't become the world beater that everyone expected. And you have to wonder whether the weight of those expectations held back his progress. The Rickie machine needs to dial it back just a little and let the kid do the talking with his sticks. His talent will take him where he needs to go better than his talent agency can.