Rays one and done? They'll be back ... without breaking the bank

By Danny Knobler | September 9, 2009

NEW YORK -- When the Yankees miss the playoffs, they spend upwards of $400 million to try to make sure it never happens again.

When the Rays miss the playoffs? Well, let's just say that it would have been a lot better for free agents and their agents if the Yankees missed the playoffs again.

"I think if you were able to play this season 10 times, in my opinion this is the worst we'd finish in those 10 times," general manager Andrew Friedman said this week as it became obvious the Rays won't be matching last year's magical October. "It's baseball, and that's what makes it great. We're not going to knee-jerk the other way.

"I feel like we've got a lot of talent, and that we've got a lot of the personnel, for the most part, on hand to be very dangerous next year."

Friedman and the rest of the people who run the Rays seem to understand two very important points. One, that in the Rays' world, $400 million pays for 15 winters' worth of spending, not a single winter. Two, while the Rays have looked done (and almost disinterested) during the seven-game losing streak that has put an end to any thoughts of a miracle finish, they still look talented.

They're nearing the end of a year that's disappointing in the context of what they did in 2008. They're not back to being the same old doormat Rays of pre-2008.

They have to guard against back-sliding the way the Indians did after their 2007 playoff run. But they have enough good young players, and enough motivation, to make you believe they will be very dangerous in 2010.

"I feel like we're going to be in it, man, every year for a long time," reliever J.P. Howell said.

Manager Joe Maddon agreed.

"We're going to be in this race for many years to come," he said.

Howell is part of a Rays bullpen that has broken down in the last month, going 2-10 and converting just four of 12 save opportunities. Maddon is the manager who in recent days has overused that bullpen in a futile attempt to save the season.

In the last nine days (covering 10 games), Maddon has made 42 pitching changes, using 32 of those relievers for fewer than three outs. Six of his relievers have pitched at least five of the last eight days, leading one scout who follows the Rays to say, "The manager has turned into a micro-manager. I like the guy, but he's gotten out of hand."

Maddon says he has to make multiple pitching changes, because the Rays don't have a "matchup bullpen." He also says he hasn't changed.

"This is how we do business, and we've been very successful with it," he said. "Got us to the World Series last year. When it works, it's brilliant, and when it doesn't, it looks rather stupid. Actually, I haven't done anything different."

In any case, the Rays were behind the Yankees and Red Sox before the bullpen failures began. As Maddon points out, they've been behind since a 9-14 April, and they never really recovered.

Eventually, they lost second baseman Akinori Iwamura to left knee surgery, but Maddon says injuries didn't doom the season. The Rays have also had disappointing years from center fielder B.J. Upton and designated hitter Pat Burrell, but they've scored more runs per game this year than they did in 2008.

They made what seems like a bad decision in trading Edwin Jackson (now 12-6 for the Tigers) for Matt Joyce (who spent the year in the minor leagues). But with Jeff Niemann developing into a Rookie of the Year candidate and David Price showing his promise in the second half, the Rays rotation really hasn't suffered.

They had enough pitching to feel comfortable trading Scott Kazmir to the Angels, getting away from a contract that pays $8 million next year and $12 million in 2011. As Friedman said at the time, "This is what we do and have to do to balance the now and the future."

The reality is that one of the most disappointing numbers of this Rays season is their attendance total, which sits at 1.66 million with 12 home games remaining. The Rays had hoped for league-average attendance, but their average of 24,115 a game is well below the major-league mark of 30,339.

"The short answer is it has a huge affect on what we can do," owner Stu Sternberg said.

No matter how big a problem the Rays think their bullpen is, they won't be spending big for the top closers in free agency. They're more likely to bring in several lower-priced options, and hope to get lucky.

It's unlikely they'll spend big on any free agent at any position.

That's tough when you're competing with the Yankees and Red Sox. But no one in the Rays front office, and no one in their clubhouse, seems to moan about life in the American League East.

They accept it, but they also understand it.

"Eighty-nine wins in our division probably translates to 93 wins in the Central," Sternberg said. "Or 147 in the National League."

The Rays probably won't win 89 games (they'd have to go 17-6 the rest of the way). But they won't lose 89, either.

"We've had a decent season," said third baseman Evan Longoria, who has been better than decent. "It's not terrible. But if we don't make the playoffs, it's not good. It'll be a disappointment, but not a complete disaster."

When the Yankees missed the playoffs, it was seen as a complete disaster. The Rays aren't there yet, but they're heading in that direction.

"[This year] feels terrible, which is a good sign for us," Howell said.

This year feels terrible. Thoughts of next year already feel better.

"We'll head into the offseason optimistic that we can break camp with a team that has a chance to be great again," Friedman said.

And it won't even cost them $400 million.